Grey: Projected CO2 emissions for year end 2011 Red: Projected bunker fuel spend during 2011 Green: Projected CO2 emissions and bunker fuel spend for year end 2011, with 30% efficiency savings applied.
Figures based upon IMO projections of GHG growth A1B Scenario, (Source: Fig 1. ICCT White Paper 11 – July 2011). These estimates assume business as usual with an increase of 3% in economic growth rate corresponding to growth in the transport demand, composition and activity of the world's shipping fleet.
It is estimated that GHG emissions from international shipping contribute 870 mmt of CO2 to the atmosphere, with an additional 180 mmt attributable to domestic and inland ships in 2007, for a total of 1050 mmt. Under the IMO's scenario analysis, shipping-sector CO2 is expected to climb to between 2,500 mmt and 3,650 mmt by 2050. These are long-run projections and there may be deviations from the trajectories due to market volatility in the short-term.
The maritime industry can reduce its GHG emissions by between 150 million metric tons of CO2 (lower bound) and 520 million metric tons of CO2 (upper bound) with an expected 320 million metric tons of CO2 per year with negative marginal abatement costs (i.e., while improving overall industry costs).
This is on the order of 13 to 46 percent of the 2020 BAU case.
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